Mythbuster: The English Conspiracy

On Monday 31st of August 2009 the final matches of the NT World Cup 4th Round were played. After the games the Group 2 table read as follows:

Image 1: NT WC XIII Rd IV Group 2

As you can see England and Ireland had identical Points, Goal Difference and Goals Scored. The rules state that in such a case a coin toss decides who will be placed higher. So what's the problem?

Well, the rules are clear enough for normal club series, but it is not clear whether the same rule applies to NT World Cup groups. With no official confirmation that a coin toss had actually taken place questions were quickly raised on the Irish forum: Was there a conspiracy to see the English go through to the World Cup Semis? Did they only go through because their TeamID is lower? Or was it alphabetical maybe?

Many Irish users were not happy. In fact you could say that some of them were unhappy. Very unhappy.

So they took their questions to the Global forum in the hope that a passing HT would clear things up and confirm or deny the conspiracy theories. Sadly, several days later, their questions remain unanswered and still people are unsure of why one team is playing Deutschland in the Semi Finals of the World Cup and one team is playing a meaningless friendly against Pakistan in rainy Wicklow.

Thankfully some helpful users on the English and Irish forums have revealed the truth about this particular conspiracy theory.

Everything hinges on what the primary method of separating teams who are equal on Points, Goal Difference and Goals Scored is. By looking at previous World Cup groups it is possible to put certain theories to the test.

Case 1: Makedonija - Malaysia

Image 2: U20 WC X Rd II Group 4

Was the primary sorting method Lowest Team ID? No. Makedonia are team 3159 and Malaysia are 3081. Myth busted!

Were the teams sorted alphabetically? Yes, they were. Makedonija does without doubt come before Malaysia when sorted alphabetically. So, Myth confirmed? Not quite. Before we jump to any conclusions perhaps we should examine Case 2...

Case 2: France - Ceska Republika

Image 3: WC VIII Rd II Group 8

From Case 1 we already know that the teams weren't sorted by Team ID, so no need to even look at that.

Were the teams sorted alphabetically? No. Myth busted.

(This case also tells us something else: Head to head results don't matter in this case either, as Ceska Republika beat France 1-0 and still finished below them in the table).

So, what is the logical conclusion?

A random draw between the equal teams is the only theory which still makes sense. Well, so far. I'm sure it's only a matter of time until someone dreams up another possible tie breaker!

The Real Problem

However, the main issue here is not which method was used to sort the two teams in the table. The main issue is the fact that 4 full days after the group table was published the forums were still filled with questions, rumour and hearsay. How can this be resolved? Personally I think there should be official staff members (either NTA GMs or HTs - I don't care) who are dedicated to the U20 and NT World Cups who are visable on the forums to answer questions like these when they occur.

Thousands of people around the world care passionately about the NT and U20 games in Hattrick, if I was an HT I would nurture this area of the game which creates such interest and which gives so much enjoyment to so many paying Supporters. At the moment us NT fans feel more than a little neglected.

Sports Psychologists & Team Confidence

• Team Confidence changes during the weekly economic update
• It usually moves towards the starting point of mid-level decent
• If you hire many Sports Psychologists it will drop more slowly or rise more quickly than if you had none

• This table shows the average Team Confidence after the economic update for each combination of Sports Psychologists and TC before the update
• Mid level decent is level 4.50. Darker text means that more data points were available for that combination (light grey indicates 1 or 2 data points, dark grey indicates 3 or 4 and black indicates 5 or more).
• If you know of a similar study please either comment below or HT-Mail me in game.
• If you would like access to the raw data just send me a message - I'm always very happy to colaborate!
• Part of the data was taken from a previous German study while the rest was collected by users in the Hattrick Library from research threads in the Scottish and English Hattrick forums. A big thank you to all you contributed!
  

Team Confidence Hidden Effect

One year ago HT-Tjecken used his 'Hattrick Mythbusters' thread to confirm that Team Confidence not only affects the match ratings but also has a hidden effect on the chance of scoring a goal. Here is what he said at the time:


The intervening year has seen much discussion of how large this hidden effect is and how important this will be to the average Hattrick manager. In the Hattrick Library federation we had a lengthy discussion and decided to research these questions. GM-HomerJay lead the investigation and published his results recently. I think they will be quite interesting to every Hattrick manager!

To read the full report go to his webpage and open the top link titled 'Download Here'.

The Hattrick Library federation is always discussing interesting aspects of the Hattrick universe and researching areas of uncertainty. To join the next project go and check them out!